'Up to 50%' or a flat 15%: the two kinds of discount on Europe's homepages

European retailers advertise percentage discounts in two different ways, and the two kinds of claim are far apart. On 1 November, the 19 'up to' claims we recorded on homepages promised a median of 50% off. The 76 flat claims, the kind that state one percentage, offered a median of 15%.

The gap matters because the two claims do not mean the same thing. A flat 15% describes what is on offer. 'Up to 50%' describes the best case, and research for the US Federal Trade Commission found that many people remember the number without the 'up to'.

Two kinds of claim, 35 points apart

We read 59 retailer homepages and deal pages across 11 markets on 1 November. They carried 95 percentage-discount claims that stated a figure: 19 'up to' or range claims from 15 retailers, and 76 flat claims from 27 retailers.

The two groups barely overlap. More than half of the 'up to' claims (10 of 19) reached 50% or more. Only 5 of the 76 flat claims did, and two-thirds of all flat claims (50 of 76) were 20% or less.

These figures are what the headlines promise, not discounts we measured across products. A homepage that says 'up to 60%' may have one product at 60% off and the rest far below it. That is why we report such figures as 'up to'.

Why does 'up to' get read as a promise?

The best evidence comes from a study for the US Federal Trade Commission, published in 2012. The researchers, Manoj Hastak and Dennis Murphy, interviewed 360 shoppers in five US markets. Each saw one version of a print advertisement for replacement windows. One version promised savings of 'up to 47%' on heating and cooling bills.

Of the 114 people who saw the 'up to' version, 45.6% said the advertisement promised savings of 47%, without the qualifier. Only 26.3% repeated the 'up to'. Among people who saw the same advertisement with 'up to' removed, 58.3% said 47%. The report found that difference was not statistically significant. In other words, the two words made little measurable difference to what people took away.

Removing the words 'up to' made little measurable difference to what people remembered.

Belief followed the same pattern. In their own opinion, 43.0% of the people who saw the 'up to' version thought half or more of buyers would save about 47%. The FTC summarised the finding as many consumers believing they will get the maximum result an 'up to' claim describes.

The study is about energy savings in the United States, not discounts in European shops, and it is more than a decade old. But the mechanism it tests, a headline maximum read as a typical result, is the same one on a retailer's homepage.

The same homepage often speaks both languages

Eleven retailers showed both kinds of claim on 1 November, so a shopper sees the two numbers side by side. The median gap between a retailer's top 'up to' claim and its median flat claim was 10 points, but the widest gaps were much larger.

Modivo in Poland advertised up to 60% on fashion next to a flat 10%. Lidl's German online shop showed up to 60% alongside flat claims of 10% and 15%. Al.to in Poland paired up to 73% with a flat 30%, and Shein's German storefront paired up to 65% with 35%. At the other end, La Feltrinelli in Italy advertised up to 25% while also showing a flat 50% on books.

Poland and Germany use 'up to'; France and the UK do not

The split is sharpest by country. Poland and Germany carried 12 of the 19 'up to' claims. France and the United Kingdom carried none: all of their 30 percentage-discount claims stated a single figure.

Market	'Up to' claims	Median 'up to'	Flat claims	Median flat
Poland	6	55%	4	20%
Germany	6	50%	7	15%
Sweden	3	26%	9	13%
Italy	1	25%	21	20%
France	0	–	17	16%
United Kingdom	0	–	13	12%

Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Ireland had three claims or fewer each. Spain's only one was AliExpress's up to 80%, the highest headline figure we recorded.

Category tells a similar story. Fashion produced the most 'up to' claims (5 of 19), from Modivo, eobuwie, Otto and Shein. Another five named no category at all. Grocery produced the most flat claims: 20 of 76, almost all from E.Leclerc in France (11) and Aldi in the United Kingdom (6), with Carrefour in Italy and Auchan in France making up the rest. Grocers, in other words, almost always state the discount (20 of their 21 claims were flat); fashion is where the ceilings cluster, although even there flat claims were more common (11 against 5).

The ceiling rose overnight

Between 31 October and 1 November, the median flat claim barely moved, from 16% to 15%. The median 'up to' claim rose from 40% to 50%.

Several changes drove that. Lidl in Germany raised its top claim from up to 48% to up to 60%. Otto in Germany replaced a flat 20% on fashion with 'up to 50%'. Shein's German storefront (up to 65%) and AliExpress in Spain (up to 80%) added new 'up to' headlines. In the other direction, E.Leclerc dropped its up to 46% on grocery, and Bygghemma in Sweden cut its top claim from up to 40% to up to 25%.

Meanwhile, the number of retailers with a Black Friday or Black Week label rose from 8 to 14 in a day. Two days are too few to call a trend, but they point to headline percentages rising faster than the flat discounts beneath them.

What the rules ask of a ceiling

EU rules on price reductions focus on the reference price a discount is measured from: under article 6a of the Price Indication Directive, it is the lowest price of the previous 30 days. Guidance in the United Kingdom addresses 'up to' claims directly. The Chartered Trading Standards Institute's Guidance for Traders on Pricing Practices says such a claim should be made only if the maximum reduction applies to a "significant proportion" of the promotion. It does not set a number, and the guidance is not binding on courts.

We cannot yet test that from our side. Checking whether a claim holds would need prices for the products in each promotion, and our price check had not judged any discounted products on 1 November. All we can say today is what the headlines promise.

What to watch

• Singles Day, 11 November: whether more retailers switch from flat claims to 'up to' headlines, and whether France and the UK follow.
• Black Week, expected from around 20 November, and Black Friday on 27 November: whether the median 'up to' claim keeps rising above 50% while flat claims stay around 15%.
• Product-level prices: as our price history builds through November, we will compare advertised maximums with the reductions we observe on the same sites.

How we measured this

We read retailer homepages and deal pages every morning; on 1 November, 59 of the 178 retailers on our list were read successfully, and many others block automated visits or are not yet covered. We counted every active percentage-discount claim with a stated figure, and classed it as 'up to' when the headline said 'up to' or gave a range (for example 5–15%), using the highest figure. All depths are what the headline claims, not discounts measured across products. Samples are small, especially outside Poland, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom, and the mix will change daily as Black Friday approaches.